Despite provincial rules, a new analysis finds greenfield development accounted for more than two-thirds of new Hamilton residential units last year. And the infill that has taken place over the last decade was not in the intended areas leaving population density levels far below targets in most designated growth centres such as LRT stops.
Starting in 2015, provincial rules required that at least 40 percent of new development occur inside the built-up area. Hamilton hit 42 percent that year, but last year it fell back to just 28 percent, a level that prevailed before the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe was legislated ten years ago. The provincial directives approved in May push up the infill targets to 50 percent in the short term and 60 percent by 2031.
The city’s continuing reliance on suburban sprawl is also evident in the population growth numbers over the last decade. Nearly half of the 32,000 new residents are in Glanbrook, with the rest divided between Ancaster, Stoney Creek and Flamborough, while old Hamilton’s population is essentially unchanged and Dundas actually lost about 400 residents. The rural population has also declined since 2006 by about 2000. More than nine-tenths of rural residents aren’t involved in farming.
The numbers are part of a staff report presented to councillors last week as part of updating Hamilton’s decade old growth strategy (the so-called Growth Related Integrated Development Strategy or GRIDS). They appear to further weaken plans for another expansion of the urban area onto farmland – a process already underway on the Elfrida lands south and east of the intersection of Rymal and Upper Centennial.
GRIDS adopted a “nodes and corridors” growth plan that expected most intensification would occur in downtown Hamilton and along major arterial roads such as Main, King, Queenston, Mohawk and Upper James, but instead a substantial portion has taken place in neighbourhoods where developers have successfully argued for more residential units than originally anticipated.
“In general, it is noted that some traffic zones in the west harbour area and several of the downtown traffic zones have been underperforming with regards to intensification,” notes the report. “Some of the newer growth areas such as Hamilton Mountain, Ancaster and the Stoney Creek waterfront have experienced greater intensification than what was forecasted.”
More than two-thirds of new residences inside the built-up area have been constructed in neighbourhoods instead of the two-fifths that had been predicted. New downtown units make up just 13 percent instead of the 20 percent expected, and those along nodes or corridors are running at slightly less than half the projections. More than three-quarters of the intensification in neighbourhoods has come in the form of single family, semi-detached or townhouses.
In addition to failing to achieve the provincial intensification targets, the results of the last decade leave many parts of the city “underperforming” with much lower than planned densities (reported as the number of residents and/or jobs per hectare). At 235, downtown Hamilton is close to its 250 target, but major nodes at Limeridge and Eastgate are at 74 and 64 respectively instead of the hoped for 100 to 150.
The results for “community nodes” where the target is 100 vary widely. The downtowns of Dundas and Stoney Creek have achieved the goal, but areas such as the Meadowlands, Centre Mall, and Heritage Green are languishing in the 40-55 range. Even Ancaster which got a special target of only 50 is sitting at just 35.
The report also looks at how the city is doing in providing sufficient jobs and finds disappointing results. The 2011 census showed fewer than five years earlier. The 2016 census numbers are not available yet, but the report uses city data to calculate an increase of more than 20,000 jobs in the last five years. If accurate, that’s still 50,000 less than the provincial forecasts for Hamilton.
The main shortfall is in the industrial category where less than half of the provincially determined target has actually been achieved. That’s despite the current availability of over 800 hectares with more than a third of that deemed “shovel-ready” although the report says it is “anticipated that as serviced lands become available for development around the airport (AEGD), the city’s employment numbers will increase.”